Weekly Market Memo (28/3-3/4)

Stats

Interest Rate Projection - Current: 1.9%
Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr: 2.8%
Inflation Rate: 7.9
Central Bank Balance Sheet: 8982445.00
DXY: 98.8

News

Crypto

Russia is considering the acceptance of BTC as payment for its oil and gas trades. (A very good news to BTC)

Finance and Economy

The demands to treasury has lowered. The treasury market depth has declined and the yield has been rising because investors are sensitive to the news of inflation and Fed raising rate.

Some analysts believe that the shortage of oil supply is going to cause recession. (oh lord)

Chinese companies listed on US exchanges are facing the campaign of audit scrutinizing. Some fault companies may be discovered and delisted.

Global political economy

China is facing a big risk of isolating itself from the western economic circle. China's stance is regarded as tolerating Russia's invading Ukraine by western countries. Western countries especially the US are pressing China on this issue. If China is discovered to lend a hand to the Russian economy and military operations, western countries may build economic barriers between western countries and China. The worst case is economic sanctions.

Russia and Ukraine War

The prices of wheat, sunflower, soy, and rapeseed-related products in Europe are rising. Russia and Ukraine are the major suppliers of wheat, sunflower, rapeseed, flaxseed, and soy used for cooking and in animal feed in the globe. 90% of flaxseed processed in the EU is imported. Prices are rising in bread, pasta, and meat in Italy. 90% of sunflower oil and a large amount of corn used to feed animals in Italy are imported from Ukraine.

Market Forecast

BTC
46035 (3/28 05:03 UTC+8)
Review of analysis: excellent
This week's analysis: I have updated the analysis on Twitter and IG on 25 Mar. The momentum of BTC is good for it to break through 45000. This analysis is still proven to be correct. I retain this analysis in this week. Let the breakthrough to develop in this week. Some sell off may need to release. The release may pull the price back to around 44000. Once 43000 is not broken, the breakthrough is regarded as success. The next price target is 49150. Under the current highly uncertain financial environment, not a good time to be too optimistic.
Ranking: 3.6/7

DJI
34861 (3/28 05:46 UTC+8)
Review of analysis: Excellent. Bullish in the last week.
This week's analysis: The current trend is highly uncertain for me. I may be wrong in this week. I doubt the bullish trend of last week can remain. The momentum is not strong. Sell pressure is likely to release in this week. 34000 and 33300 are the two support price. If DJI can stand on 34000, it is a good sign.
Ranking: 3.3/7

Oil
110.95 (3/28 06:04 UTC+8)
This week's analysis: The oil is running a consolidation trend between 116 and 95.
Ranking: 3.25/7